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Showing posts from June, 2026

The trap of unrealistic expectations: Possibility is not probability

 Why are probability and possibility confused with each other? Understanding the difference between the two is the key to rational decision-making, risk management, and avoiding major disappointments. What is the difference? Possibility means that an event can happen. It does not violate the laws of physics or logic. Its chance exceeds zero. Probability measures the mathematical or statistical likelihood that an event will actually happen under certain conditions. The chance is expressed as a percentage and is often extremely close to zero. Simple real-life examples The Lottery Ticket You buy a ticket from the National Lottery. Possibility: Yes, you have a valid ticket, so it is possible to win the jackpot. Probability: The chance of winning the jackpot is about 1 in a few million. Although the possibility exists, the probability is negligible. Relying on this income for your retirement means your strategy is disastrous. Starting a New Business You decide to start a tech innovation...

Everyone tries to win at all costs, and occasionally they forget that someone else often pays the price

 We’ve often heard the phrase, “Just do it!” In a world that pushes us to be productive 24/7, the phrase sounds like a mantra. But in my book, The Wealth of the Great Kingdom, I put forward a thought that we often miss: “The question is not whether I will do it but how to do it right and benefit everyone without harming others.”  Isn't it ironic? Everyone tries to win at all costs, and occasionally they forget that someone else often pays the price. Let's break it down through examples from our "modern" life.  Look at the solar boom. Everyone wants to be energy independent, ​​and that’s a good thing. But look at the difference: Option A: You install a system that “drains” the grid in such a way that it puts a strain on your neighbors, just to save a few levs on top. That’s “doing it.” Option B: You plan your installation (like a modern “Balkonkraftwerk” with storage) so that you optimize your consumption without burdening the infrastructure and even share the surplus....

Do We Need an Upgrade to Our Governance System?

A thought experiment for a fairer tomorrow Throughout the centuries, forms of government have constantly shifted, changing only their labels. Yet for the average person—regardless of whether they were rich or poor—the difference has often been minimal. Even under communist regimes, people worked for a crust of bread while the party elite lived in luxury without doing any real work. Nowadays, with information reaching us at lightning speed, we can see the gap between the rich and the poor widening into a deep chasm. Countries are in debt, people are in debt, and a small group is becoming obscenely wealthy. We are on the verge of mass robotization, which will inevitably leave many without a livelihood, leading to unpredictable consequences. History remembers such moments—when the majority is fighting just to survive, the system begins to break down. Even if we invent a "new" system with a fancy name, it will not differ significantly from the current ones unless we solve the fun...

Bedtime Stories -or Why Promises Are Free

 Do you know what the easiest thing in the world is? To talk. This is especially true if you are a politician, a manager, or just someone who really wants to look important. We will amend this; we will change that. “I start a diet "tomorrow"—phrases that fly through the air like autumn leaves. But as the old saying goes, "It is easy to talk; it is difficult to do.” The truth is most evident in the political circus: They are true masters of this discipline. Before elections, promises are poured out like cheap wine at a wedding. You watch them on TV—confident, neat, with fiery speeches about the “bright future” and “social justice." Everything sounds so logical that you even start to believe it yourself. And what happens after that? The elections are over; they enter the cabinet and... surprise! Suddenly the "objective circumstances" change, the budget is not enough, the opposition is getting in the way, and the promised reforms somehow evaporate in the fog ...