The trap of unrealistic expectations: Possibility is not probability

Why are probability and possibility confused with each other?

Understanding the difference between the two is the key to rational decision-making, risk management, and avoiding major disappointments.

What is the difference?

Possibility means that an event can happen. It does not violate the laws of physics or logic. Its chance is greater than zero. Probability measures the mathematical or statistical likelihood that an event will actually happen under certain conditions. The chance is expressed as a percentage and is often extremely close to zero.

Simple real-life examples

The Lottery Ticket

You buy a ticket from the National Lottery. Possibility: Yes, you have a valid ticket, so it is possible to win the jackpot. Probability: The chance of winning the jackpot is about 1 in a few million. Although the possibility exists, the probability is negligible. If you rely on this income for your retirement, your strategy is disastrous.

Starting a New Business

You decide to start a tech innovation company in your garage, inspired by the stories of Apple or Google. Possibility: It is absolutely possible that your startup could become the next billion-dollar giant. Probability: Statistics show that over 80-90% of new businesses fail within the first few years. The possibility of spectacular success is there, but the probability of failure or average survival is much higher.

Fear of plane crashes

You are about to take a plane flight and are feeling panicky. Possibility: The plane could crash. Mechanical failures, errors, or weather conditions make this scenario physically possible. Probability: The chance of dying in a plane crash is approximately 1 in 11 million, while the chance of being injured in a car accident is many times greater.

The human brain has evolved to seek patterns and be optimistic. When we see an attractive reward (profit, fame, the perfect relationship), we automatically increase its subjective probability in our minds. We call it the optimism bias. When someone tells us, “There’s a chance you can do it,” we hear, “You will,” ignoring the vast mountain of statistical probability that stands between the first step and the final outcome.

Distinguishing between the two does not mean stopping dreaming or trying new things. It means being pragmatic: Before taking action (investing, changing careers), ask yourself not just “Is it possible?” but “What is the statistical probability of success?”

If the probability of a negative outcome exists, even if it is small, take safety precautions.

You cannot control your luck in the lottery, but you can increase your likelihood of professional growth through education, perseverance, and hard work. Opportunity opens the door to the future, but it is probability that determines which path is worth taking.

Author Sezgin ismailov

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