Why are probability and possibility confused with each other?
Understanding the difference between the two is the key to rational decision-making, risk management, and avoiding major disappointments.
What is the difference?
Possibility means that an event can happen. It does not violate the laws of physics or logic. Its chance exceeds zero. Probability measures the mathematical or statistical likelihood that an event will actually happen under certain conditions. The chance is expressed as a percentage and is often extremely close to zero.
Simple real-life examples
The Lottery Ticket
You buy a ticket from the National Lottery. Possibility: Yes, you have a valid ticket, so it is possible to win the jackpot. Probability: The chance of winning the jackpot is about 1 in a few million. Although the possibility exists, the probability is negligible. Relying on this income for your retirement means your strategy is disastrous.
Starting a New Business
You decide to start a tech innovation company in your garage, inspired by the stories of Apple or Google. Possibility: It is absolutely possible that your startup could become the next billion-dollar giant. Probability: Statistics show that over 80-90% of new businesses fail within their first few years. The possibility of spectacular success is there, but the probability of failure or average survival is much higher.
Fear of plane crashes
You are about to take a plane flight and are feeling panicky. Possibility: The plane could crash. Mechanical failures, errors, or weather conditions make this scenario physically possible. Probability: The chance of dying in a plane crash is approximately 1 in 11 million, while the chance of being injured in a car accident is many times greater.
The human brain has evolved to seek patterns and be optimistic. When we see an attractive reward (profit, fame, the perfect relationship), we automatically increase its subjective probability in our minds. We call it the optimism bias. When someone tells us, “There’s a chance you can do it,” we hear, “You will,” ignoring the vast mountain of statistical probability that stands between the first step and the outcome.
Distinguishing between the two does not mean stopping dreaming or trying new things. It means being pragmatic: Before taking action (investing, changing careers), ask yourself not just, “Is it possible?” but, “What is the statistical probability of success?”
If the probability of a negative outcome exists, even if it is small, take safety precautions.
You cannot control your luck in the lottery, but you can increase your likelihood of professional growth through education, perseverance, and hard work. Opportunity opens the door to the future, but it is probability that determines which path is worth taking.
Do not live as if you had ten thousand years to live. The hour is near. While you live, while you have the opportunity, try to become worthy.
ReplyDeleteMarcus Aurelius
Where, as is known, there is necessity, there is also opportunity.
ReplyDeletePythagoras
Time always contains within itself opportunity.
ReplyDeleteHippocrates
Failure is just an opportunity to try again more wisely.
ReplyDeleteHenry Ford
I always try to turn every disaster into an opportunity.
ReplyDeleteJohn D. Rockefeller
We have a country with great opportunities not only for criminals, but also for the state.
ReplyDeleteVladimir Putin
Indecision is the thief of opportunity.
ReplyDeleteJim Rohn
There are no guarantees in life, there are only probabilities.
ReplyDeleteTom Clancy
Religious belief depends on a multitude of social, psychological, and emotional factors that have little or nothing to do with probability, evidence, or logic.
ReplyDeleteMichael Shermer
Religious fanaticism has obviously produced, and will likely continue to produce, enormous amounts of strife, fighting, violence, bloodshed, murder, feuds, wars, and genocide.
ReplyDeleteAlbert Ellis
Everything we do in the digital realm—from surfing the web to sending an email to making a credit card transaction to, yes, making a phone call—creates a data trail. And if that trail exists, chances are someone is using it—or will be soon enough.
ReplyDeleteDouglas Rushkoff
A person who believes in his goal has a high probability of succeeding.
ReplyDeleteSezgin
The probability of success lies in your struggle and patience.
ReplyDeleteSezgin
In probability theory, you can win the lottery by betting on all the combinations. But what's the point of paying five times as much to prove you can?
ReplyDeleteSezgin
From reading a lot of books and comments on social networks, I realized that many people confuse probability with possibility.
ReplyDeleteSezgin